30 Years... and Hopefully Many More to Come

Reflections on Three Decades of Change, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of Investing

In July of 1996, at the age of 23, I began my career as a financial advisor. Back then, email was still a novelty and reading messages on my tiny green-and-black computer screen felt like deciphering a secret code. The screen was about seven inches wide, the text was DOS-based, and thankfully my 23-year-old eyes were up to the challenge. Looking back, it's amazing to think that what felt like cutting-edge technology at the time now belongs in the same category as cassette tapes, fax machines, and dial-up internet.

A lot has changed since 1996. Walk into a coffee shop today and you'll see a scene very different from the iconic coffee shop in the television show Friends. Back then, people talked to each other. Today, most of us are staring at a device that has more computing power than NASA used to put a man on the moon. Our industry has changed as well. Technology has lowered costs, increased access to information, improved communication, and allowed advisors to provide more personalized service than ever before. In many ways, investors have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of these advancements.

Over the last 30 years I've had the privilege of helping clients navigate the Dot-Com Bubble, the aftermath of 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, and countless market scares in between. Every period felt different at the time. Every period came with predictions that 'this time is different.' Yet the common thread has always been that innovation moves forward, markets adapt, and disciplined investors are generally rewarded for staying focused on the long term.

As significant as those changes have been, I believe Artificial Intelligence may represent one of the most consequential technological shifts in human history. Throughout history, there have been a handful of innovations that fundamentally changed the trajectory of civilization-the Scientific Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, the electrification of society, and the rise of computers and the internet. Al may ultimately belong on that list. Just as previous innovations increased productivity and transformed entire industries, Al has the potential to reshape how businesses operate, how information is processed, and how decisions are made.

If that proves true, I believe we'll see a growing divide between organizations that embrace change and those that resist it. Much like electricity or the internet before it, Al is not simply another tool-it's a productivity multiplier. Businesses that learn how to integrate it thoughtfully may become dramatically more efficient, while those that ignore it risk being left behind. History has shown that technological revolutions tend to reward early adopters and challenge those who cling too tightly to the past.

For investors, periods of significant change often require flexibility. A portfolio strategy that cannot adapt may end up feeling a bit like my 1996 computer trying to compete with an iPhone. Investors should be cautious of approaches that are overly rigid, excessively diversified, backward-looking, illiquid, or lacking valuation discipline. The future is rarely won by standing still.

With that in mind, we believe investors should consider gradually shifting away from richly valued passive indexes and certain illiquid strategies in favor of active, adaptable, and flexible investment managers. The opportunities and risks created by Al will likely vary widely across industries and companies. We believe managers who can thoughtfully evaluate both sides of that equation may be better positioned to navigate what could be one of the most transformative decades in modern history.

History also reminds us that access to information alone does not necessarily lead to better investment outcomes. According to DALBAR studies, individual investors have often underperformed the very investments they own by approximately 3% per year over long periods of time due to behavioral mistakes such as emotional decision-making, poor market timing, and chasing performance. In other words, having more information is not always the same as making better decisions. As Artificial Intelligence places unprecedented amounts of information and analysis at our fingertips, the challenge for investors may become less about finding information and more about having the discipline, perspective, and judgment to act on it wisely.

Perhaps the greatest irony of Al is that while technology becomes smarter, the value of human judgment may actually increase. Algorithms can process information faster than ever before, but they cannot fully understand a family's goals, fears, values, or dreams. They cannot replace trust, experience, perspective, or the ability to help someone remain calm when markets become turbulent. The best advisors of the future will likely combine technology with human wisdom rather than choose one over the other.

Over the last 30 years, technology has changed dramatically. Human behavior hasn't.

Now, at 53 years young, I find myself more excited about the future than ever. The pace and direction of change over the next decade remain uncertain, but one thing is clear: we won't be sitting idly by relying on yesterday's technology and yesterday's thinking. We'll continue learning, adapting, and searching for opportunities on behalf of our clients.

Of course, not all old technology should be abandoned. When it comes to music, I'm still convinced the 1990s got it right.

Thank you to all of the clients, families, friends, and colleagues who have trusted me over the past 30 years. It has been an honor to be part of your financial journey, and I look forward to what the next decade will bring.

Important Disclosure: The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and are subject to change without notice. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. References to Artificial Intelligence, active management, market conditions, or future investment opportunities are forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.